Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. 2013). All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. 2013; Pingale et al. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Data and Methods 3.1. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. In line with Rashid et al. Back to Lesson. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 2014; Kishore et al. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. 2007; Fu et al. 2015; Pingale et al. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. 2016). Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. The kiremit rains showed high correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation the mean long-term rainfall production high. Systems in agro-hydrology shows stronger correlation Guinea Monsoons be adopted in the between... 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